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Study Shows That Planet Only Has 5% Chance to Reach Goals of Paris Climate Agreement

Source: The Guardian/Oliver Milman - August 8, 2017 in Politics

Study Shows That Planet Only Has 5% Chance to Reach Goals of Paris Climate Agreement
Photo: Alvesgaspar/Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)

There is only a 5% chance that the Earth will avoid warming by at least 2C come the end of the century, according to new research that paints a sobering picture of the international effort to stem dangerous climate change.

Global trends in the economy, emissions and population growth make it extremely unlikely that the planet will remain below the 2C threshold set out in the Paris climate agreement in 2015, the study states.

The Paris accord, signed by 195 countries, commits to holding the average global temperature to “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels and sets a more aspirational goal to limit warming to 1.5C. This latter target is barely plausible, the new research finds, with just a 1% chance that temperatures will rise by less than 1.5C.

“We’re closer to the margin than we think,” said Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington academic who led the research, published in Nature Climate Change. “If we want to avoid 2C, we have very little time left. The public should be very concerned.”

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